Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 3.427007 4.126722 4.909650 5.847150 6.935564 8.155600 9.622733
2025-03-09 2.389287 3.263921 4.348783 5.779065 7.599128 9.820507 12.717231
2025-03-16 1.779177 2.711973 3.975359 5.779585 8.252194 11.479336 15.958743
2025-03-23 1.367672 2.300580 3.666393 5.756360 8.805717 13.012799 19.156569
2025-03-30 1.023726 1.893277 3.263814 5.499804 8.953498 13.960795 21.607398
2025-04-06 0.823969 1.659807 3.066477 5.493254 9.429053 15.379089 24.809703
2025-04-13 0.665924 1.456600 2.872854 5.447057 9.813538 16.670003 27.906030
2025-04-20 0.592612 1.390426 2.896392 5.754544 10.783638 18.926251 32.630752
2025-04-27 0.517552 1.302073 2.861310 5.947232 11.571123 20.945204 37.123212
2025-05-04 0.465250 1.248481 2.880285 6.234296 12.541231 23.327241 42.356167
2025-05-11 0.391051 1.127492 2.743503 6.204344 12.934844 24.764160 46.124711
2025-05-18 0.312798 0.975625 2.513974 5.955946 12.891199 25.432892 48.631573
2025-05-25 0.245288 0.832862 2.280474 5.671737 12.760450 25.960242 50.982013
2025-06-01 0.207181 0.758063 2.187489 5.670468 13.180635 27.512317 55.239336
2025-06-08 0.176615 0.695528 2.111523 5.694368 13.650978 29.188976 59.828351
2025-06-15 0.149268 0.633786 2.024910 5.679782 14.036107 30.727755 64.258721
2025-06-22 0.117665 0.545962 1.850527 5.429054 13.885447 31.211870 66.747496
2025-06-29 0.099878 0.500007 1.781069 5.423600 14.268542 32.771450 71.364667
2025-07-06 0.083795 0.453932 1.701045 5.378273 14.554220 34.150474 75.711317
2025-07-13 0.078801 0.451252 1.751513 5.682549 15.676109 37.319946 83.743286
2025-07-20 0.071522 0.435975 1.759596 5.873206 16.546361 40.018237 90.981934
2025-07-27 0.066847 0.430817 1.799545 6.157207 17.665584 43.310845 99.582813
2025-08-03 0.056867 0.395754 1.732125 6.127582 18.014523 44.973935 104.961879